Intercountry feedback and spillover effects within the international supply and use framework: a Bayesian perspective*

This paper proposes a new framework for the estimation of product-level global and interregional feedback and spillover (FS) factor multipliers. The framework is directly based on interregional supply and use tables (SUTs) that could be rectangular and gives a possibility of taking account of the inherent input–output data uncertainty problems. A Bayesian econometric approach is applied to the framework using the first version of international SUTs in the World Input–Output Database. The obtained estimates of the global and intercountry FS output effects are discussed and presented at the world, country and product levels for the period of 1995–2009.     

省域尺度下不同时序景观指数集与粒度效应分析

[目的]景观格局变化是景观生态学中的热点问题。研究省域尺度下不同时序景观指数的粒度效应、选取计算景观指数所需的适宜粒度范围并筛选出代表性景观指数集对分析景观格局变化具有重要意义。[方法]以安徽省土地覆被为研究对象,以2000年、2005年、2010年的Landsat TM遥感影像为主要数据源,采用土地利用转移矩阵对安徽省土地覆被的转移数量与方向进行研究;通过设置不同的栅格大小研究景观指数的粒度效应并选取合适的粒度范围;基于相关性分析、因子分析与敏感性分析,筛选出代表性景观指数集。[结果](1) 2000—2010年安徽省的土地覆被始终以耕地为主,其次是林地与人工表面;人工表面的增加是建立在耕地面积减少基础之上的,在10年间共有超过3 200km2的耕地转化为人工表面;(2)景观指数存在粒度效应,粒度变化会对景观指数的计算结果产生影响;省域尺度下计算景观指数所需的合适粒度范围为100～125m;(3)研究安徽省景观格局变化的代表性景观指数有4个,分别为最大斑块指数、景观形状指数、平均斑块面积、香农多样性指数。[结论]计算安徽省景观指数的适宜粒度范围为100～125m,安徽省的代表性景观指数集为最大斑块指数、景观形状指数、平均斑块面积、香农多样性指数,为进一步研究景观格局变化及驱动机制提供了依据。     

Nonlinearities in the real exchange rates: new evidence from developed and developing countries

This paper investigates nonlinearities in the dynamics of real exchange rates. We use Monte Carlo simulations to establish the size properties of the Teräsvirta-Anderson test, when the dynamics of the real exchange rate is influenced by an exogenous process. In addition, we show that a modified nonlinearity test, which includes additional right-hand-side variables, performs much better than the original in both Monte Carlo exercises and in the actual data on 1431 bilateral real exchange rate series. Finally, we investigate the dynamics of the real exchange rate for both developed and developing countries using the modified test for the recent floating period. In general, the results find a greater incidence of nonlinear dynamics for developing country real exchange rates.     

Why you should use high frequency data to test the impact of exchange rate on trade

This study suggests that testing the impact of exchange rate on trade should be done using high-frequency data. Using different data frequencies for identical periods and specifications between the US and Canada, we show that low-frequency data might suppress and distort the evidence of the impact of exchange rate on trade in the short run and the long run.     

辽西北地区农业干旱危险性评价与区划

[目的]开展农业干旱危险性评价与区划研究,为辽宁省西北地区农业防旱抗灾工作提供科学依据。[方法]文章根据联合国国际减灾战略署(ISDR)对农业干旱危险性的定义,分析了构成研究区作物干旱危险性的致灾因子和孕灾环境因子,采用层次分析法确定了各因子的权重,构建了研究区农业干旱危险性评价指标和模型。以2009年为例,通过利用降雨、土壤、农业生产类型及地形等数据计算了辽西北地区农业干旱危险性评价指数,利用自然间断点法分级干旱危险性评价指数,并借助GIS技术,绘制研究区农业干旱危险性等级区划图。[结果] 2009年作物生长期间研究区农业干旱危险性由高到低排列为:朝阳市葫芦岛市锦州市阜新市铁岭市沈阳市。[结论]辽西北地区农业干旱危险性等级区的划分,能够帮助政府管理部门为面临干旱威胁不同的区域建立适当的防灾方法和有效的应急预案。     

Return and volatility spillovers between currency and bond markets in India

This paper examines the return and volatility spillovers between the foreign exchange and bond markets of India using a bivariate asymmetric BEKK-GARCH (1,1) model for the period 4 April 2005 to 31 March 2017. We find the evidence of bidirectional return and volatility spillovers with asymmetric effects between these two markets. The spillovers are evidenced even during the periods when foreign portfolio investments in the Indian bond markets were relatively low suggests the existence of strong inter-linkages between both the markets.     

延迟退休年龄下隔代抚育与劳动参与的抉择*——基于工资收入随机性假定的研究

隔代抚育会对延迟退休年龄政策在促进劳动力供给上产生挤出效应。为了对此进行验证，本文在工资收入随机性的假定及延迟退休5年的情景下，模拟了面临孙辈照护需求的女性临近退休者提前退休所产生的福利变化。进一步，本文采用CHIP和CHARLS的微观调查数据，对不同群组的收入增长率和收入风险进行了估计，继而分析了当面临孙辈照护需求时这些收入特征对退休决策者制度退休和退休后劳动参与抉择产生的影响。总体上，在延迟退休年龄政策下，隔代抚育将对女性劳动力供给产生挤出效应。当面临孙辈照护需求时，女性临近退休者的制度退休抉择主要受自身收入增长率和收入风险的影响，收入增长率越低，或收入风险越高，她们提前退休的意愿就越强烈；制度退休后的劳动参与则更多地受子女收入增长率的影响，子女收入增长率越高，劳动参与的概率越低。     

The exchange regime and trade balance in Turkey

Over the last 15 years, high trade deficits have become a source of external vulnerability for the relatively stabilized Turkish economy. This corresponds to the period where authorities have been following a floating exchange rate regime. Thus, this study aims to empirically show whether the adopted exchange rate regime has an impact on the trade balance for the period of 1987 Q1 to 2015 Q2. Estimation results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the real effective exchange rate and trade balance under both fixed and floating regimes in Turkey, but there is no evidence for the J-curve hypothesis.     

基于效应的随机灰规划模型和应用

为了解决同时含有随机因素和灰色因素的不确定规划问题,通过结合区间灰数所属区间两个端点的随机性,给出随机区间灰数和随机区间灰函数的定义,提出了随机灰规划模型。通过综合效应函数理论用随机变量期望值和方差综合量化表示灰数所属区间的两个端点值。应用该理论对综合量化后的两个端点值继续进行综合量化,从而将随机灰规划转化为确定型规划问题。应用遗传算法进行求解。通过综合效应函数的理念,综合随机变量的期望和方差,同时综合区间灰数的区间因素,将随机灰规划数学模型转化为确定型规划模型即基于效应的随机灰规划模型。通过选取不同的综合效应函数,得到了关于不同决策意识下的随机灰规划的最优解。这个方法可为决策者进行不确定决策提供参考。     

宁夏农业科技园区专项计划项目实施情况及效果分析

农业科技园区专项项目是围绕影响农业产业化关键技术开展研究攻关，把具有市场开发前景的先进适用技术应用于产业化经营上而设立的科技研发项目。研究选取了2014-2016年列入宁夏自治区重点研发计划农业科技园区专项的69 个项目，从项目的执行情况、完成效果、组织管理以及经济和社会效益等方面进行绩效评价，并提出了存在的问题和建议。